Edward Scicluna

L-indiċi tas-sentiment ekonomiku x’valur għandu?

Xtaqt nuża din l-opportunità biex nagħ­mel aċċenn fuq kif, biss ftit jiem ilu, l-aġenzija tal-istatistika Ewropea (Eurostat) ippubblikat dawk li ngħidulhom l-indiċi tas-sentiment ekonomiku.

Dan jiġifieri statistika li ­tindika kemm qegħdin ipoġ­ġu fiduċja n-nies ta’ pajjiżi membri tal-Unjoni Ewropea fl-ekonomiji tal-pajjiżi tagħ­hom, u fatturi oħrajn bħal pereżempju jekk iħossuhomx li marru għall-aħjar, jew għall-agħar.
Din l-istatistika tinħadem permezz ta’ stħarriġ li jsir f’dawn il-pajjiżi, u li jistaqsu liċ-ċittadini rispettivi: inti me­ta tikkompara llum ma’ sena ilu, tħoss li l-ekonomija marret jew sejra għall-aħjar? Marret għall-agħar? Jew inkella baqgħet fejn kienet?

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Bi pjaċir ngħid li r-riżultati li ġew ippubblikati jikkonfermaw li f’pajjiżna, l-fiduċja fl-ekonomija żdiedet mhux ħa­żin. Din hija aħbar sabiħa għall-Gvern. Dan għal bosta raġunijiet, fosthom għax ifis­ser li l-konsum diġà jiżdied, li d-dħul mix-xogħol qiegħed jogħla, u allura min ikun irid jinvesti se jagħmel kuraġġ biex jinvesti.
Din l-informazzjoni dwar sentiment tittratta mhux biss dwar l-ekonomija imma wkoll dwar il-konsumaturi, dwar il-produtturi, dwar min jimpjega, u allura tiġbor ħafna indiċi li jiġu ppubblikati. Dawn jinġabru minn medda kbira ta’ ‘units’ ta’ familji jew inkella negozji, u allura huma affidabbli ħafna, tant li l-aġenzija tal-istatistika Ewropea (Eurostat) tippubblikahom kull xahar.
Però apparti minn hekk, ta’ min jistaqsi jekk dawn il-figuri għandhomx xi valur? Distinzjoni importanti li hemm bżonn li ssir bejn dawn il-figuri u figuri oħra li jitrattaw l-esportazzjoni jew l-infiq tal-Gvern u li allura diġà ġraw, huma li dawn il-figuri tal-indiċi tas-sentiment ekonomiku jikkonċernaw mhux il-passat, imma l-futur.
Il-valur ta’ dawn l-indiċi huwa l-fatt li dawn qegħdin jiddiskrivu llum, kif ukoll x’naħsbu għada x’se jsir. Mhux qegħdin nitkellmu dwar il-passat.

 

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F’ħafna każijiet, bosta statistika tinġabar snin qabel jew xhur qabel, tieħu ż-żmien biex tiġi miġbura, klassifikata, iċċekkjata, imbagħad wara dan kollu, tiġi ppubblikata. Il-passat, u l-istatistika li tikkonċerna l-passat, hi effettiva biss bħala mera li forsi tagħti indikazzjonijiet tal-ġejjieni.
Iżda min irid jippjana jew jinvesti għall-ġejjieni, irid iħares lejn il-futur u mhux jara l-passat. U hawn hi l-importanza ta’ dawn l-inċidi, hekk kif huwa l-fatt li dawn l-indikaturi huma meqjusa bħala indikaturi elwenin ta’ tbassir daqs kull mudell ieħor.
U allura min qed jieħu d-deċiżjonijiet fil-Gvern, kif ukoll dawk li jkunu qegħdin jgħaddu ġudizzju mill-bankijiet tal-Oppożizzjoni, u l-kapijiet ta’ negozji u kumpaniji kbar, ikunu jistgħu jużaw din l-istatistika biex ikollhom idea aktar ċara tal-ġejjieni.
Jiena nistedinkom li tibdew tagħtu kas dawn l-indiċi daqs kemm tagħtu kas indiċi oħ­rajn tal-ekonomija, li joħorġu minn żmien għal żmien mill-istess aġenzija tal-istatistika.

 

 

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– Tuesday, 14th August, 2014

 

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